DOOM: Part 1
“My fellow Americans, I’m pleased to tell you today that I’ve signed legislation that will outlaw Russia forever. We begin bombing in five minutes.” —Ronald Reagan, August 11, 1984-
As a Cold War kid growing up in the suburbs of D.C., there were constant reminders that the world was in an apparently endless struggle not to fall over the cliff of mutually assured destruction. Now, I didn’t grow up during the “duck and cover” days, but that would have held its own very special place in my reminiscent heart. None of my neighbors were clamoring to build bomb shelters. The derogatory term “Red” was almost (but not quite) a distant memory, except for the random satirical Robin Williams movie. There were, however, strategically placed missile silos tucked discretely in the depths of our safe white collar corner of Fairfax County, at the ready to incinerate the surrounding two-story colonials on their way into the atmosphere and armageddon. There were weekly air-raid siren tests—every Wednesday at noon. Ronald Reagan made the infamous joke that was later leaked to the public, putting Russian air command on high alert.
Arguably the tension of the early ‘80s was a far cry from the height of posturing in the early ’60s. The Hunt For Red October, which highlighted the common humanity of two diametrically opposed super powers, was published in 1984. Mikhail Gorbachev was slowly but surely hinting at the fact that the Soviet Union was going desperately and disastrously broke. That diminishing tension, though, was just enough to spark the curiosity of a budding, perhaps mildly morbid prepubescent. It was just enough to make me ask, in no uncertain terms, what if? This was just about the time when “nuclear winter” was becoming popular jargon. Three Mile Island had nearly erupted, and Chernobyl was soon to follow. The Day After premiered on primetime network TV in 1983, painting in stark detail for a general viewing audience what the affects of all out nuclear war would mean. Awareness of real consequences was becoming a family room topic. What if those bombs flew? What then?
In the years since, having watched one calamity after another and knowing that the skin of our teeth held the fabric of civility together, I’ve continued to ask that same question. What would really happen if the worst were to come? At first nuclear conflict and fallout were on my radar, but then the horizon broadened. Nuclear is a danger, to be sure, but was that the only disaster awaiting us?
In my travels, I’ve come upon every answer you can imagine. There’s the dystopian nightmares of 1984 and WE. If you ask James Hansen, former Director of NASA and author of Storms of My Grandchildren, then the answer is a scorched and barren wasteland not unlike Venus. Richard Heinberg and Dmitry Orlov have cast their votes for economic collapse of the highest order. Michael C. Ruppert thinks the whole world is going to implode at any moment. S.M. Stirling’s novel Dies the Fire propels us into a world of—wait for it—no fire (generally speaking). In fact there is no shortage of doom fiction on the market: The Stand, The Road, Watchmen, A Boy And His Dog, On The Beach, Lucifer’s Hammer, andChildren of Men just to name a few. You’ve probably read at least one of them. And let’s not even start on popular film. Mad Max is one of my favorites. But even though I’ve earnestly asked the question what if?, each of these renditions of our fate leaves me with the same nagging conclusion—Really? Sure, they all have exciting plots that rather easily lend themselves to being optioned for a movie, and likely a profitable one at that, but really?
In short, probably not. The reality is perhaps far less fantastic than any of the above titles. That’s not to say, though, that no one has asked the question—reallyasked the question and translated the answer into really good fiction. Indeed there are two novels, written by thoughtful writers who wanted their world to be based as much in truth as possible. Each attempts to project into the not-too-distant future the erroneous ways of their present.
Alas, Babylon, published by Pat Frank in 1959, is a realization of how things might have turned out if the Bay of Pigs fiasco of 1961 had gone south. Frank took care to analyze the threat in an almost prophetic way. He was almost right in his prediction of the human condition post-nuclear war, save for the minor detail of nuclear winter.
World Made By Hand by James Howard Kunstler is the more contemporary counterpart to Frank’s cautionary tale. Kunstler imagines the world post oil, a situation that is quickly coming to the attention of government, military, and corporate policy makers worldwide. Set in a future most of us will likely be around to see, World Made By Hand pulls no punches delivering a glimpse at what we have built around us based on the ease of fossil fuels, and the shock to the system that will occur when the oil wells start to run dry.
Both of these books are must reads. As a matter of fact, I recommend reading them—now. Over the next few installments of this blog, I’ll be taking a much closer look at the implications of each. We’ll meet the people of these worlds, discuss the plights, and consider, even for a fleeting moment, what it would mean if they were correct. Remember, Pat Frank almost was and possibly still could be correct. Kunstler has a director of IEA and many others backing up his opinions of the future.
So, buckle up. Next time around we’ll discuss the past. Pat Frank will take us on ride into the sum of all fears. Then we’ll move on to Kunstler’s energy poor future. For both, we’ll see if we can’t answer the endless enigma of what if.
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